Domestic oil prices are about to see a significant increase.
Date:2026-07-30
Domestic oil prices are expected to see a significant increase on July 31st (Friday) at 24:00, with an estimated increase of over 0.5 yuan per liter.
This price adjustment is mainly due to the tense situation in the Middle East, leading to sharp fluctuations in international oil prices. Here are the key details:
Estimated Increase: Multiple institutions estimate that the retail price of gasoline and diesel should increase by 680-700 yuan/ton. Converted to per liter, 92-octane gasoline is expected to increase by 0.53-0.56 yuan, and 95-octane gasoline by around 0.60 yuan.
Actual Impact: Based on this increase, filling a 50-liter tank with 92-octane gasoline will cost approximately 27 yuan more than it currently does. After the price adjustment, the price of 92-octane gasoline in many parts of the country will again approach or exceed the 8 yuan/liter mark.
📈 Why such a large increase?
The direct driver of this round of price adjustments is the escalation of geopolitical conflicts, which directly threatens the world's most important oil transportation routes.
Two major choke points are blocked: the US-Iran conflict has disrupted navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, while the Houthi rebels in Yemen have blocked the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. These two straits handle approximately 40% of global oil trade, and the disruption to transportation has triggered strong market concerns about a severe supply shortage.
Oil prices have experienced a rollercoaster ride: As a result, international oil prices have fluctuated wildly recently. Brent crude oil briefly surged to over $100 per barrel, before falling sharply after a brief period of easing. However, the overall average price has been significantly increased in this cycle, directly leading to expectations of a substantial increase in domestic oil prices.
💎 What's the future trend?
Currently, the future direction of oil prices depends primarily on the development of the situation in the Middle East, which is highly uncertain.
Short-term geopolitical outlook: If the conflict continues or escalates, oil prices may continue to rise. Some analysts believe that for every month the conflict lasts, the average price of Brent crude oil could rise by another $7-8.
In the medium term, a balanced outlook is expected: While supply risks are high, high oil prices themselves are also suppressing consumption. Furthermore, the potential for increased production from OPEC+ will limit the continued rise in oil prices. Therefore, oil prices may enter a period of wide-range fluctuations at high levels in the future.
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